Expert reveals what will influence the ruble in July

The tax period became support for the Russian currency in the last week of June. What will happen to the ruble exchange rate in early July - Natalia Vaschelyuk, senior analyst at UK Pervaya, revealed to Finance Mail.ru.

Last week the ruble strengthened due to preparations for the tax period. In addition, imbalances will most likely remain in the foreign exchange market due to sanctions against the MICEX .

Next week, from July 1 to July 7, after tax payments are completed, the national currency exchange rate may begin to weaken, the economist notes.

“We expect that the yuan exchange rate will remain in the range of 11.5-12 ₽/yuan during the week,” predicts Natalia Vaschelyuk.

An additional factor in the medium-term weakening of the ruble could be a reduction in the volume of currency sales by the Bank of Russia.

In the first half of 2024, to mirror the investment of funds from the National Welfare Fund, the Bank of Russia sold foreign currency in the amount of 6.24 billion rubles daily. In the second half of the year, the volume of such transactions will decrease to 2.87 billion rubles/day, as a result, the foreign exchange market may receive $4 billion less than in the first half of 2024.

“This information is for informational purposes only (introductory) and does not constitute individual investment advice.”